Submitted/In Revision
Amaya DJ, N Maher, C Deser, MG Jacox, MA Alexander, M Newman, J Dias, and J Lou. Future changes in seasonal climate predictability. In revision. [ preprint ]
Cluett, AA, MG Jacox, DJ Amaya, MA Alexander, and JD Scott. Atmospheric precursors of skillful SST prediction in the Northeast Pacific. In revision.
Bastien-Olvera, BA, O Aburto-Oropeza, F Favoretto, DJ Amaya, EP Urbano, L Brander and K Ricke. Climate change stalls global mangrove recovery and diminishes their economic value. In revision.
Larson SM, KM McMonigal, Y Okumura, DJ Amaya, A Capotondi, K Bellomo, IR Simpson, and AC Clement. Ocean realism shapes sea surface temperature variability in a CESM2 coupled model hierarchy. In revision.
Published
2024
Deser, C, AS Phillips, MA Alexander, DJ Amaya, A Capotondi, MG Jacox, and JD Scott. Future changes in the Intensity and Duration of Marine Heat and Cold Waves: Insights from Coupled Model Initial-Condition Large Ensembles. J. Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0278.1. [ html ] [ pdf ]
Jacox MG, S Bograd, J Fietcher, M Pozo-Buil, MA Alexander, DJ Amaya, N Cordero Quirós, H Ding, R Rykaczewski et al. Linking upwelling dynamics and subsurface nutrients to projected productivity changes in the California Current System. Accepted.
Yang, C, R Bourdallé-Badie, M Drevillon, DJ Amaya, et al. (2024). Gathering users and developers to shape together the next-generation ocean reanalyses: Ocean reanalysis workshop of the European Copernicus Marine Service. BAMS. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0034.1. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2023
Amaya DJ, MG Jacox, MR Fewings, VS Saba, MF Stuecker, RR Rykaczewski, et al. (2023). Marine heatwaves need clear definitions so coastal communities can adapt. Nature, 616(7955), 29–32. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-023-00924-2. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ co-signatories ]
Amaya DJ, MA Alexander, MG Jacox, JD Scott, C Deser, A Capotondi and A Phillips (2023). Bottom marine heatwaves along the continental shelves of North America. Nat. Comm. 14, 1038. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36567-0. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
Amaya DJ, MA Alexander, MG Jacox, and JD Scott (2023). An evaluation of high-resolution ocean reanalyses in the California Current System. Prog. in Ocean., 210, 102951. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2022.102951. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
Alexander, MA, JD Scott, MG Jacox, C Deser, DJ Amaya, A Capotondi, and AS Phillips. A survey of coastal conditions around the continental US using a high-resolution ocean reanalysis. Prog. in Ocean., 216, 103055. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2023.103055 [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
Jacox, MG, MP Buil, S Brodie, MA Alexander, DJ Amaya, SJ Bograd, et al. (2023). Downscaled seasonal forecasts for the California Current System: Skill assessment and prospects for living marine resource applications. PLOS Climate, 2(10), e0000245. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pclm.0000245 [ html ] [ pdf ]
Ren, X, W Liu A Capotondi, DJ Amaya, and NJ Holbrook (2023). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation modulated marine heatwaves in the Northeast Pacific during past decades. Communications Earth & Environment, 4(1), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00863-w. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
Shu Q, Y Zhang, DJ Amaya, SM Larson, Y Kosaka, J-C Yang, and X Lin (2023). Role of ocean advection during the equatorward propagation of the Pacific Meridional Modes. J. Clim. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0296.1. [ html ]
2022
Amaya DJ, MG Jacox, J Dias, MA Alexander, KB Karnauskas, JD Scott, and M Gehne (2022). Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast skill in the California Current System and its connection to coastal Kelvin waves. JGR: Oceans. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC017892. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ] [ OSM talk ]
Di Lorenzo E, T Xu, Y Zhao, M Newman, A Capotondi, S Stevenson, DJ Amaya, et al. (2022). Modes and mechanisms of Pacific decadal-scale variability. Annual Review of Marine Science. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-marine-040422-084555. [ html ] [ pdf ]
Jacox MG, MA Alexander, DJ Amaya, E Becker, SJ Bograd, S Brodie, EL Hazen, M Pozo Buil, D Tommasi. Global forecasts of marine heatwaves. Nature. 604, 486–490. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-04573-9 [ html ] [ pdf ]
Shi H, J Fei-Fei, RCJ Wills, MG Jacox, DJ Amaya, BA Black, RA Rykaczewski, SJ Bograd, M Garcia-Reyes, and WJ Sydeman. Global decline in ocean memory over the 21st century. Sci. Adv. 8 (18), eabm3468. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.abm3468. [ html ] [ pdf ]
Zhang Y, S-Y Yu, DJ Amaya, Y Kosaka, MF Stuecker, J-C Yang, X Lin, and L Fan (2022). Atmospheric Forcing of the Pacific Meridional Mode: Tropical Pacific-Driven Versus Internal Variability. Geophys. Res. Lett. 49, e2022GL098148. [ html ] [ pdf ]
Zhang Y, S-Y Yu, S-P Xie, DJ Amaya, Q Peng, Y Kosaka, X Lin, J-C Yang, SM Larson, AJ Miller, L Fan (2022). Role of ocean dynamics in equatorial pacific decadal variability. Clim. Dyn. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2021
Amaya DJ, AM Seltzer, KB Karnauskas, JM Lora, X Zhang, and P DiNezio (2021). Air-sea feedbacks shape North American hydroclimate response to ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2021.117271. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ AGU talk ]
Amaya DJ, MA Alexander, A Capotondi, C Deser, KB Karnauskas, AJ Miller, and NJ Mantua (2021). Are Long-Term Changes in Mixed Layer Depth Influencing North Pacific Marine Heatwaves? [in “Explaining Extremes of 2019 from a Climate Perspective”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102 (1), S59–S66, https://doi.org/10.1175/ BAMS-D-20-0144.1. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ] [ AGU talk ]
Johnson, GC, RL Lumpkin, SR Alin, DJ Amaya, et al. (2021): Global Oceans [in “State of the Climate in 2020”]. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 102 (8), S143 –S198, https://doi.org/10.1175/ BAMS-D-21-0083.1. [ html ]
Karnauskas, KB, L Zhang, and DJ Amaya. The atmospheric response to North Atlantic SST trends, 1870–2019 (2021). Geophys. Res. Lett., 48, e2020GL090677, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090677. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
Zhang, Y, S Yu, DJ Amaya, Y Kosaka, SM Larson, X Wang, J-C Yang, MF Stuecker, S-P Xie, AJ Miller, and X Lin. Pacific Meridional Modes without Equatorial Pacific influence (2021). J. Clim., https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0573.1. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2020
Amaya DJ, AJ Miller, S-P Xie and Y Kosaka (2020). Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave. Nat. Comm., 11, 1903, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-15820-w. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ] [ research highlight ]
Johnson NC, DJ Amaya, Q Ding, Y Kosaka, H Tokinaga and S-P Xie (2020). Multidecadal modulation of key metrics of global climate change. Glob. and Planet. Change, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103149. [ html ] [ pdf ]
Schmidt DF, DJ Amaya, KM Grise, and AJ Miller (2020). Shifts of the North Pacific Subtropical High drive upwelling trends in the California Current System. Geophys. Res. Lett., https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL088996. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2019
Amaya DJ (2019). The Pacific Meridional Mode: a Review. Curr. Clim. Change Reports, 5, 296-307, doi:10.1007/s40641-019-00142-x. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ research highlight ]
Amaya DJ, Y Kosaka, W Zhou, Y Zhang, S-P Xie and AJ Miller (2019). The North Pacific pacemaker effect on historical ENSO and its mechanisms. J. Clim., 32 (22), 7643-7661, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0040.1. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ research highlight ] [ AGU talk ]
Sanchez, SC, DJ Amaya, AJ Miller, S-P Xie and CD Charles (2019). Pacific Meridional Mode over the last millennium. Clim. Dyn., 53, 3547–3560, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04740-1. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
Wang, JK, KR Johnson, A. Borsato, DJ Amaya, GL Griffiths, GM Henderson and S Frisia (2019). Hydroclimatic variability in southeast Asia over the last two millennia. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 525, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2019.115737. [ html ] [ pdf ] [ supplement ]
2018
Amaya, DJ, N Siler, S-P Xie and AJ Miller (2018). The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus. Clim. Dyn., 51, 305-319, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3921-5. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2017
Amaya, DJ, MJ DeFlorio, AJ Miller and S-P Xie (2017). WES feedback and the Atlantic Meridional Mode: observations and CMIP5 comparisons. Clim. Dyn., 49, 1665-1679, doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3411-1. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2015
Amaya, DJ, S-P Xie, AJ Miller and MJ McPhaden (2015). Seasonality of tropical Pacific decadal trends associated with the 21st century global warming hiatus, JGR Oceans, 120, 6782–6798, doi:10.1002/2015JC010906. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2014
Amaya, DJ and GR Foltz (2014). Impacts of canonical and Modoki El Niño on tropical Atlantic SST, JGR Oceans, 119, doi:10.1002/2013JC009476. [ html ] [ pdf ]
2013
Kramm G, DJ Amaya, T Foken and N Mölders (2013). Hans A. Panofsky’s Integral Similarity Function—At Fifty, Atmos. Clim. Sci., 3, 4, 581-594. doi:10.4236/acs.2013.34061. [ html ] [ pdf ] html
Invited Contributions
2023
Amaya DJ (2023). El Niño is coming, and ocean temps are already at record highs – that can spell disaster for fish and corals. The Conversation. [ html ]
2020
Amaya DJ and National Center for Atmospheric Research Staff (2020). The Climate Data Guide: Meridional Modes and their Indices. [ html ]
2018
Allen RJ and DJ Amaya (2018). The importance of ENSO/PDO to recent tropical widening. “Expansion of the Tropics”, Variations, 16, 8-14, US CLIVAR. [html] [pdf]
2017
Victor, DG, N Obradovich and DJ Amaya (2017). Why the wiring of our brains makes it hard to stop climate change. September 17, 2017. LA Times. [html] [pdf]
2016
Amaya, DJ, NE Bond, AJ Miller and MJ DeFlorio (2016). The evolution and known atmospheric forcing mechanisms behind the 2013-2015 North Pacific warm anomalies. In “A Tale of Two Blobs”, Variations, 14, 1-6, U.S. CLIVAR. [ html ] [ pdf ]